How Could The Ukrainian War End? – Opinion
How Might the Ukrainian War End?
by Alan Nafzger
The majority of confrontations do not end with one side completely victorious. There is more frequently than not some type of negotiated agreement when two parties agree to end hostilities on a set of terms that both sides can accept, such as a ceasefire or a longer-term peace treaty.
The conflict in Ukraine could be an exception: either Russia brings Kyiv to its knees, creating a severe breakdown in Russian morale, or the fight concludes in a disastrous combat defeat. However, considering how the war has progressed thus far, the majority of observers believe none of these are plausible.
According to Kofman of the CNA think tank, “no matter how much military force the Russians put into the situation, [the Russians] are not going to be able to achieve regime change or any of their maximalist objectives.”
The situation is likely to be solved diplomatically. Peace talks are currently taking place between the two parties, and some reports indicate that they are progressing well. On March 28, the Financial Times reported that significant progress had been made on a draft agreement covering themes such as Ukrainian NATO membership and the “deNazification” of Ukraine. The next day, Russia agreed to use less force in Ukraine’s north as a demonstration of its commitment to the talks.
However, American officials have publicly questioned Russia’s sincerity in the talks. Even while Moscow is committed to reaching an agreement, various obstacles stand in the way of a good resolution because the devil is always in the details in these types of circumstances.
While they wait in line for additional vehicles at the Take NATO, the Russians want a clear promise that Ukraine would remain “neutral,” i.e., not join any foreign security alliances. According to the Financial Times, the present draft agreement bars Ukraine from joining NATO but allows it to join the EU. Furthermore, if Ukraine is attacked again, it guarantees the assistance of at least 11 countries, including China and the United States. As a result, Ukraine would have substantially stronger security than it did prior to the war. As a result, Kyiv would triumph while Moscow suffered, which Putin may eventually decide is intolerable.
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Author: Alan Nafzger